Rupee may surge to 40 per dollar if Modi becomes PM- Report in times of India

I am not able to believe that how rupee shall appreaciate by 35% if Modi becomes PM. This report is published in Times of Indai. India is a net importer means our import is more than exports. Recently gap between import and exports has reduced due to ban/ imposition of duties on Gold. But demand for petrolium product is on rise due to demand of private vehicle and industrylization. We are still exporting garments/food items who price are relatively low. Share of Industrial products need to be increased to sustain a stronger Rupee. The main reason for steep depreciation of Rupee was financing of import from short terms funds which were are invested by FII in debt/ Govt. securities. Once they withdrew hot/ easy money from market rupee tumbled from 52-53 to 68 in less than three months. Import cost of petrol and other items increased by 25% in rupee term. But exporter should have been happy but it is not correct. Foreign buyers adjust price of goods based on value of dollar. On the one hand we paid more INR for imports s and foreigner ( importers from India) gets the benefit of depreciaiton of INR.

Depreciation/ appreciation of Rupee has a huge impact on indian economy and its citizen.If rupee appreciates further say upto ( 50-55) than fuel price will come down by 10%. Indian companies will pay less for imports which in turn reduce the price or their prfitablity shall increase . Profitabilty will attract investment which will create job.
I am not sure how Modi will help in appreciation of Rupee but my wishfuly thinking is that Rupee must appreciate. After all a strong currency is a pride of Nation. Jai Hind more  

View all 6 comments Below 6 comments
no one know more  
it is wrong prediction that if rupee appericiate our export will come down our cost of production also come down so export will boost up import is more due to corruption in army railways oil imports government is not allowing ethnol mixing we have increase our production to crub imports coal production iron ore production and capital goods production more  
Dear Manish, Reality is otherway around. When dollar appreciated then importer reduce our price for merchandise. You check with Garment exporters. Suppose you fix a price of $3 per item exchange rate is 50 so expoerter shall get 150. if exchange rate is 60 , buyer shall approach exporter and re negotiate the rate may be $2.75 or $2.80 . India importer do not have this bargaining power as do not export anyhting which is exported by us only. Importer can switch any time to other seller either from India or any other country. If you are exporting medicine or enigneering goods, buyer can not switch to other seller.

Even if your argument is correct, our import is much more than export and demand is increasing irresective of state of economy whereas our export is dependable on world economy. if Global economy is doing well ,exporter is doing well. But our import which primarily petrolium product demand for which is growing. Appreciation of rupee is most welcome and focus should be to move from export of agro procuct to engineering goods etc. There are plenty of example wherein crash of currency has bankrupt the country. more  
Hello Ashish,

Due to poor policies of the present government and the famous "policy paralysis", the government has neglected the basics and concentrated on measures which were frivolous in nature like hiking taxes, surcharges, retrospective tax on Vodafone etc.
RBI has been repeatedly asking the govt to pull up its socks but govt was busy in its own scams and dirty politics.

All said and done, why these people are banking on Modi is due to his flair for pin pointing the root cause and addressing the basics like education, infrastructure and trade friendly policies. politics and 2002 apart, one has to admit that common man in Gujrat is a happier lot then rest of India.

Next reason is that Dollar is already artificially high. PM and FM have been giving lame excuses about this being a global phenomenon. If it was so, then why only Indian Rupee gets weaker compared to Dollar, Australian Dollar, GBP, Euro, .....? The main reason is blatant corruption and black money. once the black money is reigned in, Rupee may go even stronger than what is being predicted.

Another proposal which is very interesting is the imposition of only transaction Tax and removal of all other taxes. It shall curb balck money and make things affordable for the poor. if tried and successful, one can't predict how strong rupee may become, maybe even higher than Rs 25 per Dollar!! Some may call it Utopian dream but I have analysed it and find it very practical and worth a try. more  
Post a Comment

Related Posts

    • ARE EVERYONE TIRED OF LOCKDOWN ?

      Now, it appears that both the governments and the public are tired of lockdown. It appears that people have reconciled themselves to live with COVID 19, just as they have been living wi...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • DISRESPECT TO CORONA INFECTED DECEASED PERSONS

      It is highly depressing to read news about the local people’s objection to bury / cremate the corona infected deceased persons in their locality. This is happening all over India and par...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • COVID 19 - LIFTING LOCKDOWN IN INDIA– A CALCULATED RISK THAT HAS TO BE TAKEN

      A team of management professional, technologists , trader with long experience in their respective field have put their heads together and arrived at suggestions for lifting the lockdown in the f...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • MR. MODI SHOULD BAN POLYGAMY TO PROTECT WOMEN’S DIGNITY AND CURB POPULATION GROWTH

      As we celebrate International women’s Day, it is surprising that no one seem to be talking about the practice of polygamy where one man marries several women. This is one of the most uncivil...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • DELHI POLICE – SINNED OR SINNED AGAINST ?

      Almost all section of Indian media and most of the critics have blamed the Delhi police for the riots for two days ,when many innocent lives were lost and many were injured and large scale propert...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • Someone get this chimpanzee booked

      He is openly challenging Delhi Police and Govt of India. "Trump के जाने तक तो हम शांति से जा रहे। लेकिन उसके बाद हम आपकी भी नही सुनेगे. सड़कें खाली करवाइए तब तक।" "Till Trump...

      By Rajesh Suri
      /
    • Hiow to deal with motivated agitators and terrorists ?

      For the last several days, some members of the Islamic group have been agitating against CAA. Now they are blocking roads in Delhi, Chennai and other places, though the government has assured that ...

      By N.S. Venkataraman
      /
    • Lessons for bjp

      3 lessons for BJP after Delhi: 1) Ideological issues must be supplemented by a solid governance agenda 2) There has to be a vibrant local unit with mohalla presence, & not mer...

      By Rajesh Suri
      /
    • Divisive campaigns have no place in aspirationals

      It was बिजली, पानी, शिक्षा, सुरक्षा chunav till a few weeks ago & then Shaheenbagh became the centrepiece of BJP’s campaign.For weeks women of shaheenbagh were demonised.If exit poll num...

      By Sonal Das
      /
    • Rahul Gandhi is an idiot

      Today Rahul Gandhi said; Ye jo Narendra Modi bhashan de raha hai, 6 mahine baad ye ghar se bahar nahi nikal payega. Hindustan ke yuva isko aisa danda marenge, isko samjha denge ki Hindustan k...

      By Shikha Jain
      /
    • Shameful news 18 India

      You ask a CM in power to prove that he cares about Hanuman and ask him to sing hanuman chalisa live. Well handled Kejriwal ji. Fan of u again in last 2 years. Worth watching everyone

      By Rajesh Suri
      /
Share
Enter your email & mobile number and we will send you the instructions

Note - The email can sometime gets delivered to the spam folder, so the instruction will be send to your mobile as well

Please select a Circle that you want people to invite to.
Invite to
(Maximum 500 email ids allowed.)