Potential Forex reserve crisis risk
Why do we need Forex?
We need reserves of foreign currencies with the RBI to meet our
A. Import expenses
B. Repayment of external debts
C. Investments abroad
D. Services like education, medical treatment, tourism, on-site projects etc
We earn forex through exports. And add more dollars thru loans
Overall imports in April-November 2022 are estimated to be USD 610.70 Billion.
India's overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-November2022 are estimated to be USD 499.67 Billion.
As per RBI reports at end-September 2022, India's external debt was placed at US$ 621.5 billion
The external debt to GDP ratio stood at 19.2 per cent as at end- September 2022
More than 40%, or $267 billion worth of external debt of the total $621 billion, is due for repayment in the next nine months, the Reserve Bank of India data showed.
This repayment is equivalent to about 44% of the India's foreign exchange reserves.
The rupee fell to a new record low of ₹82.87 to the US dollar on 24th Feb.
When the exchange value of Indian Rupee falls against the US Dollar, it means that we as a Nation will have to pay more Rupees against the Dollar loans.
More than the dollar value at the time of loan.
Economists estimate the current account deficit, or excess of imports over exports, will touch 3.1% of India's GDP, up from 1.2% last year.
From the meagre GDP Growth that we do, a large portion of that drains out for our growing imports and paying back loans with a weak Rupee
India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves dropped by $5.68 billion to $561.26 billion for the week ended February 17th, the lowest in 11 weeks and the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars to prevent further weakness in rupee.
The value of gold reserves slumped by $1.04 billion to $41.81billion.
Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) fell by $87 million to $18.26 billion and India's reserve position with the International MonetaryFund (IMF) dropped by $34 million to $5.11 billion during the last week.
The forex reserves have dipped amid continued selling pressure in the Indian equities markets, especially by the foreign institutions. "The domestic market is broadly demonstrating a lack of confidence despite global markets turning green
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last quarter slipped to an annual 4.6%, according to the median forecast of 42 economists in the February 10-24 survey.
It is expected to slow further to 4.4% in the current quarter, and across 2023/24. more