Concerns about the India story
India will at best be a middle income country. And, will remain so for a foreseeable future. There are many South American countries which have been stuck in this loop.
We are no different. You can bash me all you like. It won't change facts.
We benefit from tech-mega-trend cycles. Some of the most impactful recent innovations were spearhead by the US & China : right from Chips, Computers, Telecom, Web 1.0, 2.0, 3.0.
Our top businesses are simply brokers who bring these innovations to India. And, make money in the process.
They invent nothing.
This model worked beautifully because: our labour cost was low. Now, countries like Vietnam are taking this advantage away from us.
The last tech-mega-trend was software. It helped us create the current "middle class". With 0 innovation in the last 15 years: this middle class is breaking down. And, as a result-- rather than getting lifted up. They are falling down.
You would often meet English speaking, College Graduates working as delivery boys now. That's a sign.
Is all hopeless? No, not at all.
Remittance is our #1 source of foreign income (125Bn$ in 2025); this was ahead of even FDI (which was 55Bn$).
India hardens the middle class. Kids (at least the top 0.1%) go through mountains to build a good career: right from studying 12 hr/day for competitive exams to working 16 hr/day jobs. They ace everything that is thrown at them.
Internet has democratized things: they don't even need crazy resources to up-skill.
Exporting good people abroad is our #1 strategy of generating wealth right now. And, will remain so for a foreseeable future. more
We are no different. You can bash me all you like. It won't change facts.
We benefit from tech-mega-trend cycles. Some of the most impactful recent innovations were spearhead by the US & China : right from Chips, Computers, Telecom, Web 1.0, 2.0, 3.0.
Our top businesses are simply brokers who bring these innovations to India. And, make money in the process.
They invent nothing.
This model worked beautifully because: our labour cost was low. Now, countries like Vietnam are taking this advantage away from us.
The last tech-mega-trend was software. It helped us create the current "middle class". With 0 innovation in the last 15 years: this middle class is breaking down. And, as a result-- rather than getting lifted up. They are falling down.
You would often meet English speaking, College Graduates working as delivery boys now. That's a sign.
Is all hopeless? No, not at all.
Remittance is our #1 source of foreign income (125Bn$ in 2025); this was ahead of even FDI (which was 55Bn$).
India hardens the middle class. Kids (at least the top 0.1%) go through mountains to build a good career: right from studying 12 hr/day for competitive exams to working 16 hr/day jobs. They ace everything that is thrown at them.
Internet has democratized things: they don't even need crazy resources to up-skill.
Exporting good people abroad is our #1 strategy of generating wealth right now. And, will remain so for a foreseeable future. more
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Absolutely a good analysis. We never entertained talents and thought is always related to consolidating vote bank. This is highly aggravated in last decade. We now are slowly losing grip on many points as we are not seriously emphasising on core issue but deliberate lucidly to have claps in public domain. We are still surviving well and perhaps more time so as we are still a huge repository of wealth and that's not unknown to developed countries. We are tagged as poor and will remain so in next decade. We will produce talents and export them to make wealth for others and remain happy with foreign remittance only. more
Apr 05
Arvind Tiwari so you suggest we act like a communist country and force people to have one child? What a silly idea in a free country. more
Apr 05
well said , when you become a copy paste tech innovator the end result is as explained . If a country is not rewarding people who have enough innovative mindset but lack resources to bring it on the table . the country will remain stuck in the loop forever and never grow out more
Apr 04
How do you improve a country to develop and prosper. We have to be proud of something that has changed for the better. If you are a baby boomer (age 30-40), you are likely to agree with the above. If you ask your parents or grandparents, they will explain, how India was in 80s and 90s and how they feel now. We need to understand how we were 50 years back. more
Apr 04
