2.1 lakh cases per day projected in India by Feb 21

2.1 lakh cases per day in India by Feb 21
Per MIT study, India will be the #1 country in the world with covid-19 cases. Sharing this so members and Govt prepare for such a scenario health wise and financially.

2.1 lakh cases per day in India by Feb 21
Per MIT study, India will be the #1 country in the world with covid-19 cases. Sharing this so members and Govt prepare for such a scenario health wise and financially.

Per MIT study, India will be the #1 country in the world with covid-19 cases. Sharing this so members and Govt prepare for such a scenario health wise.. Below is summary and attached full report. We cant afford this. Something different has to be done that whats happening right now. China the source limited it at 80K cases, we have 7 lakh already and are 3rd in the world soon 2nd.

India might witness the worst of the coronavirus pandemic early next year if a vaccine remains elusive. Based on a recent study on testing and case data of 84 countries, comprising 60 per cent of the world population, researchers of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have predicted that India might record 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by February 2021.

Researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT's Sloan School of Management used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, a standard mathematical model for infectious diseases used by epidemiologists, for their analysis. They have also projected that the total number of cases worldwide would be between 20 crore and 60 crore by "spring 2021" (March-May) in the absence of a treatment.

According to the study, India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus, followed by the United States (95,000 cases per day), South Africa (21,000 cases per day) and Iran (17,000 cases per day) by the end of February 2021.

The study takes into account three scenarios: (1) current testing rates and their response, (2) if testing increases by 0.1 per cent per day from July 1, 2020, and (3) if testing remains at current levels but contact rate to perceived risk is set to 8 (i.e. if one infected person can infect eight people).

The model shows the importance of early and aggressive testing in containing the spread of Covid-19 as cases grow exponentially, implying that delay in testing or less testing could be fatal to a more significant proportion of the population.

For the first scenario, the model has predicted that cases would rise to 1.55 billion in 84 countries. But if these countries increase testing by 0.1 per cent per day, then cases would rise to 1.37 billion as per the second scenario.

"Both these scenarios project a very large burden of new cases in the fall (September-November) 2020, with hundreds of millions of cases concentrated in a few countries estimated to have insufficient responses given perceived risks (primarily India, but also Bangladesh, Pakistan, and USA). In contrast, changes in response policies would make a major difference," the study says.

Again, if testing rates remain at the current level, but the contact rate is set to 8, then the projection shows a drastic decline in cases and fatalities. As per the third scenario, total cases worldwide would then be up to 60 crore.

The projections for India present a gloomy picture. The study shows that countries responding poorly to the perceived risk are more likely to face severe challenges. It also says that future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission.

The MIT research further reveals that Covid-19 infection and death data is significantly under-reported worldwide. "We estimate total infections at 8.85 crore, and 6 lakh deaths by June 18 2020 - 11.8 and 1.48 times larger than reported numbers respectively," it said.

According to Johns Hopkins University, as of June 18, the official number of coronavirus cases globally was 8.24 million and that of deaths was 4,54,610. more  

View all 22 comments Below 22 comments
India has got huge population and the public in general does not
adopt safety precautions. As such there is big scope for COVID-19
to spread its wings in India at a massive scale. The Politicians should
rise above petty politics and ensure strict implementation of safety
measures and testing at a larger scale. more  
Treatment of ENT PROBLEMS Reduces COVID ATTACK more  
What ever may be the data and research say but for all this our society is responsible and not the government and doctors more  
Why someone is peddling such incomplete. and inaccurate info? Please point out the assumptions on the basis of which the inference was drawn. Also point out the stated margin of error. Read the full report first, please. The assumptions on the basis of which statistical model is predicting are incredibly false. Hence, conclusion is false as well. more  
Time will tell Sir more  
I beg to differ with these reports from the organizations based out of UK & US. In the month of March a similar report I think by Harvard had predicted the India Numbers close to 5 Million by July and 1Crore by August-September, but the realities are different. This looks more to frighten the Indians and India Government and could be the game plan of the Pharma mafia. I strongly believe that Vaccine will be launched within the next month and all such studies will go for toss.

Lets also accept that even now we must be having close to 10crore people would have got infected by CORONA Virus but recovered due to the Anti-Bodies. Its high time that the GOI introduces low cost Anti-Body tests to assess the real impact of Corona on Indian Population. more  
It would be nice to know why govt. should prepare based on MIT study.....

On Wed, 08 Jul 2020 19:05:59 +0530 Vinita Agrawal wrote
> more  
Because they dont have a study if their own more  
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