1 million cases by July 1 in India

Everyone of the circle members please see attached. With 13 days to double cases rate which we have right now, we will be at 1 million cases by july1 and 2.7 million covid 19 cases by july 20th.

We really need to take things seriously in the coming few weeks and somehow bring this rate under control.

If we open lockdown and go down to 8-10 days to double we would have 5 million cases by july 20.

Pls share this with your CM and DM/collector more  

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I do not agree that doubling rate will continue. It is a statistical concept only. The spread depends on general immunity of the population, precautionary measures taken by different communities, localities, cities and regions etc. The spread was maximum in USA as people were sluggish and over confident. The virus caught aged population and communities with lower level of hygiene. However, with the spread of the Virus, people have become alert and are taking all sort of precautions and hence, the virus has reached a saturation level and you find that doubling rate has gone up to 43.4 days. Although, it was very fast in initial days (from 500 on 15th March to 1.5 M now). US market is opening at a great pace but spread is within limits.
In India, people are still illusioned that Indians have stronger immunity than Europeans/Americans. A large population is so poor and ill informed that they can not adopt social distancing and maintain proper and continuous hygiene. Some communities are making the situation worse. Hence cases are rising so rapidly. Over a period of time, doubling rate will diminish as virus will not be able to find many weak people and people will also take proper preventive measures. hence, we should not create panic and spend our energy in educating people to maintain hygiene and take preventive measures. more  
Sent from Mail for Windows 10

From: Sarita Ravichandran
Sent: 16 May 2020 14:03
To: ramarao_m3@yahoo.co.in
Subject: "1 million cases by July 1..."
Yeah.we will surely reach such levels , if that1s what WE WANT.
Istead, if we practice compassion towards all living things ,and stop killing millions of them on a daily basis, there could be a change in our outlook and that of NATURE. This is a thought worth considering in these trying times.
Ramarao m more  
There is no doubt that we must improve substantially in number of tastes conducted in each region of the various states as well as facilities of treatment, again region wise. We have to improve to a very great extent in adopting voluntary abiding of rules or enforcement of rules in the interest of nation as a whole. This is also applicable to various political parties. Every one must forget all differences and concentrate on eliminating virus from India. This is a long battle and have to be fought steadily and patiently with strength of mind. We have to ensure cooperation of all - young and old, rich and poor. haves and have-nots and demonstrate a joint front to succeed. We do not have lot of time to argue and convince people. Therefore it may be necessary to use force to ensure compliance.
However I do not see a totally pessimistic scenario. In handling migratory labor force we have effected it without sufficient preparation and precautions resulting in unmanageable influx in the states of U.P. and Bihar in North and T.N., Karnataka,Andhra etc. resulting in sudden increase of positive cases. This was anticipated. Also as we open up economic activity, again there will be a spurt in Positive cases. However it is expected and hoped with restraint and discipline as well as improved position of medical facilities the increasing number of positive cases shall peak by 15-06-2020 and thereafter there would be a steady fall in number of positive cases. We MUST remember all the time that "Constant vigilance is the price of liberty" and we are not under British rule to always shout for non co-operation.
RYK. more  
I have not commented about Chinas statistics as it is not reliable. more  
Looking at Statistics Ms.Sarita may appear correct. But we all know India is a sum of Europe, USA, Brazil, Japan in population but very less in area. Under these circumstances the chances of doubling are very high. We have many clusters in one district in a state. One single cluster population is 5 lakhs. If we test all the people in the clusters we may double faster than 13 days (as in Dharavi). If we donot test the figure is less. Another difference between India and for eg.Japan/Italy is the median age. India it is 29 where as Japan/Italy is 40 - 46. Even China is 39.
Hence even if the cases are high the death rate will be low. Hence even if the testing per day of 100 cases in one test centre is done and even if we cross 1 million before July 1, i won't be surprised. This is bcos to control 130 cr is not a easy task. Still bcos of the demography India is able to manage. If we follow displine like China(wuhan) we may be able to contain the spread better. But we need to understand we are a Democracy and the freedom we have curtailed is itself a great achievement as against USA (Presidential form of Democracy. more  
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