Should there be a Lockdown 5.0?
72% citizens feel a complete lockdown is needed in 19 high virus load districts of India to contain spread of COVID-19
- • 73% want the Government to redeploy some Atmanirbhar Bharat funds to support those who will have loss of livelihood if a lockdown is implemented in the High Virus load districts
- • Percentage of citizens who want strict lockdown of 2 additional weeks to continue in high virus load districts has increased from 45% on May 12th to 72% on May 28th
29th May 2020, New Delhi: In the next couple of days, the fourth phase of the lockdown will be over. The cases of COVID-19 are still on the rise and numbers are increasing every day. In fact, cases are rising so fast that after it took 109 days for the first one lakh cases to appear, it only took 9 days for the next sixty thousand. Cities like Mumbai and Delhi are fast running out of hospital beds and desperate measures are kicking in. The Government will soon have to decide how they want to proceed and if there should be a lockdown 5.0.
LocalCircles conducted a survey to get a citizen pulse on what should the Government do at the end of lockdown 4.0. The 2-poll survey received over 18,000 votes from 221 districts of the country.
India’s case load has grown from approximately 100 cases/day on March 22 to the last week of May with 7000 cases/day. Citizens were asked what should be done in regards to lockdown for the next 2 weeks post May 31. In response, 60% said there should be a full lockdown in 19 high virus load districts, partial lockdown in regular red zones and no lockdown in orange and green zones. 13% said there should be a partial lockdown in 19 high virus load districts and regular red zone districts and no lockdown in orange and green zone districts. 6% said Government should announce a partial lockdown in 19 high virus load districts, no lockdown in regular red zone, orange and green zone districts, while 4% said there should be a full lockdown in 19 high virus load districts, no lockdown in regular red zone, orange and green zone districts. Only 5% said there should be no lockdown anywhere and 8% said there should be a complete lockdown PAN India. The poll results can be summarized as:
19 High Virus Load Districts * – 72% want complete lockdown
121 Regular Red Zones * - 73% want partial lockdown only
600 Green and Orange Zones * – 82% want no lockdown at all
*: Approximate Number of High Virus Load, Red, Orange and Green Zones in the country based on publicly available data.
72% citizens feel complete lockdown needed in 19 high virus load districts of India to contain spread of COVID-19
This clearly means that 72% citizens feel a complete lockdown is needed in the 19 high virus load districts of India to contain the spread of COVID-19. These include Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Thane, Pune, Indore, Jaipur, Kolkata, Surat, Jodhpur, Hyderabad, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Agra, Nashik, Vadodara, Kurnool and Thiruvallur. The 19 high virus load districts represent 80% active cases of India and each have more than 500 active cases. According to people, only home delivery of essential supplies should function here and everything else should be shut. In the 121 regular red zones, public is in favour of continued partial lockdown where there are restrictions imposed at places of large public gathering (schools, theaters, malls, etc) and during 7 pm – 7 am permitting essentials only but otherwise allowing all offices, markets and other activity to function. In the orange and green zones, most public is in favour of permitting all normal activities and restrictions should only be imposed when they turn into a red zone.
Percentage of citizens in favour of 2 additional weeks of complete lockdown in high virus load districts increases from 45% to 72% from May 12th to May 28th
In the LocalCircles survey conducted on May 3rd, 74% citizens were in favour of 2 additional weeks of complete lockdown in high virus load districts. On May 12th, this number dropped to 45% as the citizens were getting desperate to get out of their houses and get back to work. Now, looking at how fast the COVID-19 cases are increasing, this number has again gone up to 72%, which should that citizens want the High Virus Load districts to be locked down completely to significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.
The Government is facing tremendous pressure to reopen the economy as the lockdown has led to reduced growth and enormous job losses. The informal sector and gig workers have been hugely hit. Citizens were also asked if they believe the Government should redeploy some of the Atmanirbhar Bharat funds to support those who will have loss of livelihood if a lockdown is implemented in the High Virus load districts. 73% citizens answered in an affirmative while 17% answered in a ‘no’. 10% were unsure about it. Such a move will ensure that while a complete lockdown is implemented in these high virus load districts, those without daily wages are able to get financial support and sustain themselves.
73% citizens want Government to redeploy some of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat funds to support those who will have loss of livelihood if a complete lockdown is implemented in the 19 High Virus load districts
Historical data shows that during the Spanish flu in 1918, the cities that went in complete lockdown and stayed in lock down the longest are the ones that bounced back the strongest.
In summary, the majority is in favour of the Government’s COVID-19 management approach to zero in on these high virus load districts and implement a complete lockdown for the next 2 weeks while permitting the remaining 720 districts to function as much as possible. The key going forward would be decisive and concentrated action in these districts such that the daily numbers in these districts start to decline. According to feedback from citizens, relaxing lockdown further in high virus load districts will only worsen the situation and they do not have the necessary health infrastructure in these districts to handle a surge.
LocalCircles will be sharing the findings of this survey with senior leadership in the Central Government and State Governments.
18,000+ responses were received from citizens located in over 212 districts of India. 53% respondents were men while 47% respondents were women. 56% respondents were from tier 1, 30% from tier 2 and 14% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants are validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.