Major Red Flag: 25% citizens with booked summer travel may pose major risk to India’s already massive 2nd COVID surge

April 13, 2021, New Delhi: India is currently experiencing an unprecedented surge with daily COVID case load now touching nearly 170,000. What is extremely worrying is the pace at which the 2nd wave has hit India, with daily Covid cases rising from 16,000 on March 14th, 2021to over 10 times at 170,000 in less than a month is something no one had predicted or imagined. The highest daily caseload India saw in 2020 was 97,400. Having no idea of what was about to unfold, many Indians, after being restricted to their homes for a year started their travel planning for summer in February and March this year.

LocalCircles has been tracking travel plans of citizens since September 2020. The February 2021 survey had indicated that a whopping 60% of citizens planned to travel this summer. With caseloads rising, LocalCircles decided to conduct another survey in the last 3 days of March to understand how the rising caseloads had impacted people’s travel plans. The survey received more than 25,000 responses from citizens located in 305 districts of India.

50% citizens plan to travel during the next 3 months

The first question in the survey sought to understand what kind of travel citizens plan to undertake in the next 3 months of the summer season from April to June. In response, 17% said “holiday destination”, 24% said “visit family and friends”, and 9% said “plan to do both of the above”. 45% of the citizens said that they “will not be travelling, and would be staying home”. There were also 5% of citizens who voted for “can’t say”, which suggested that they haven’t made up any plans whether to travel or not in the next 3 months. The aggregate responses from citizens surveyed indicate that 50% of citizens plan to travel during the 3 months of April-June 2021. This question in the survey received 8,624 responses.

Given the rise in Covid cases, with the national daily caseload going up by 10 times in the last 1 month, people taking road travel, flights, or trains could cause significant deterioration to the already grim COVID situation in India.

50% citizens plan to travel during the next 3 months

With Covid 2nd wave, though some citizens put their summer travel plan on hold, 50% still plan to travel

Alternatively, if we are to comparatively look into the travel plans of citizens for the summer, the percentage of citizens saying they “will not be travelling and staying home” has increased from 29% in February 2021 survey to 45% in the current survey. However, citizens planning to visit “holiday destination” has increased from 13% to 17%, while those planning to “visit family and friends” has decreased from 29% to 24%, and those planning to visit holiday destination as well, as family and friends, have also decreased from 18% to 9%. The comparative findings of the two surveys indicate that though some citizens have put their summer travel plans on hold, a whopping 50% still plan to travel.

While summer travel may mean taking a flight and train/rental cars for the upper middle class or middle-class families either seeing family/friends or visiting a holiday destination, many will be frequently travelling by sleeper class in trains or taking a bus to see their parents or grandparents.

With Covid 2nd wave, though some citizens put their summer travel plan on hold, 50% still plan to travel

38% of those who were planning to book summer travel are likely to put their plans on hold

The following question sought to understand from citizens who are planning to travel this summer if they have made any bookings. In response, 25% said “Yes, booked already”, while 12% of citizens said “Not booked yet but will book soon”. There were also 25% of citizens voting for “will do last minute and no need to book” and 38% said “had plans to book but putting it on hold for the time being”. The findings of the poll indicate that 38% of those who were planning to book summer travel are likely to put their plans on hold. This question in the survey received 8,472 responses.

38% of those who were planning to book summer travel are likely to put their plans on hold

Majority of travellers who had not booked their summer travel have put their plans on hold; those who have booked, plan to travel

Similarly, if we are to comparatively look into travel booking plans of citizens, the percentage of citizens who voted for “had plans to book but putting it on hold for the time being” has increased from nil in the February survey to 38% in the latest survey. This suggests that given the rise in the Covid cases across the country, some have put a hold on their travel plans. However, the percentage of citizens saying they have “booked already” has increased from 20% to 25%. Breaking down the poll, citizens who voted for “Not booked yet but will book soon” has decreased from 37% to 12%, while citizens who voted for “will do last minute and no need to book” has also decreased from 43% to 25%. Thus, the findings indicated that the majority of travellers who had not booked their summer travel have put their plans on hold. However, those who have booked, still plan to travel. This is again a major area of concern given the rapid rise in Covid cases in India in the last 30 days, and if 25% of Indians do proceed with their travel plans during summer, it could be extremely difficult to contain Covid in India.

Majority of travellers who had not booked their summer travel have put their plans on hold; those who have booked, plan to travel

Flights and Roads to be the most preferred mode of travel during this summer

The final question in the survey sought to understand what will be the primary mode for citizens to travel this summer, 30% said “flights”, 4% said “trains”, 24% said “car, taxi or bus”, 4% said “flight and train”, 20% said “flight and car or taxi, or bus”, and 13% said “can’t say”. The poll findings indicate that flights and roads will be the most preferred mode of travel during this summer. This question in the survey received 8,522 responses.

Flights and Roads to be the most preferred mode of travel during this summer

More citizens planning travels this summer change their mode from railways and road to flights in the last one month

Evaluating the comparative findings of the February and March 2021 surveys to the poll question that asked primary mode of travel this summer, it was found out that the percentage of citizens who voted for “flights” has increased from 23% in February to 30% in March. Breaking down the poll, citizens voting for “trains” have decreased from 13% to 4%, while those voting for “car, taxi or bus” have increased from 18% to 24%. The findings of the poll have indicated that more citizens planning to travel this summer have changed their mode from railways and road to flights in the last one month.

More citizens planning travels this summer change their mode from railways and road to flights in the last one month

In summary, the findings of the survey indicated that 50% of citizens still plan to travel during April – June 2021. Since many of them have already booked their travel and are unable to cancel unless service providers like airlines, hotels travel portals and agents co-operate, the risk of Covid further worsening in India is significant. While state/district level lockdowns will lead to some restrictions and cancellations and some more people may cancel their travel given the rise in cases, a sizable percentage may still proceed with their travel plans.

The Central and State Governments must carefully study these inputs and bookings data for flights, hotels, trains and buses and take necessary action so either such travel is restricted and whatever is permitted is only after following COVID protocols of testing, mask, social distancing and hygiene such that this travel does not further worsen the deteriorating Covid situation the country is currently experiencing.

LocalCircles will be sharing these findings with key stakeholders in Central and State Government so necessary interventions and actions can be taken.

Survey Demographics

25000+ responses were received from citizens residing in 305 districts of India. 62% respondents were men while 38% respondents were women. 44% respondents were from tier 1, 26% from tier 2 and 30% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants were validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.