At 1 year mark, 62% citizens feel Modi Government 2.0 has met their expectations

Poll 1 – Reduction in Unemployment

The first question asked if India has been able to address the unemployment situation in the last 1 year. 29% said yes while 56% said no.

Poll 2 – Ease of Doing Business

When asked if they feel doing business has been easier in the last 1 year, 43% said yes and 33% said no. 24% were unsure.

Government has said that many key reforms for Ease of Doing Business are in the pipeline including direct listing of securities by Indian public companies in permissible foreign jurisdictions. Government has also announced suspension of fresh initiation of insolvency proceedings up to one year and has also decided to exclude COVID-19 related debt from the definition of “default” under IBC.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: Only 43% citizens believe Doing Business has become easier in the last 1 year

Poll 3 – India’s image in the world

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 79% citizens believe India’s image and influence in the world has improved in the last 1 year

India’s relations with other countries have been on a high for the last few months, especially during the COVID-19 crises after India helped more than 50 countries like USA, Brazil, Malaysia, France, Netherland, UK etc. with Hydroxychloroquine as grants as well as on commercial basis to treat Coronavirus. Citizens were asked if they feel India's image and influence in the world has improved in the last 1 year, and 79% voted in its favour while only 15% voted against it.

Poll 4 – Handling the COVID-19 Crisis

This poll asked citizens how they felt the Government of India has handled the COVID-19 pandemic so far. 59% said it has been handled ‘very effectively’ while 31% said it has been handled ‘somewhat effectively’. Only 7% said the handling has not been effective while 3% said it has been handled poorly. This means that whopping 90% citizens believe India has effectively handled the COVID-19 pandemic.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: A whopping 90% citizens believe India has effectively handled the COVID-19 pandemic

Poll 5 – Reduction in Corruption

Eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos of both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by them to fight corruption, questions have been raised over their effectiveness. In the corruption related poll, 49% citizens said they believe corruption in India has reduced in the last 1 year, while 43% said it had not reduced. 8% did not have an opinion.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: Only 49% citizens believe Corruption in India has reduced in the last 1 year

Poll 6 – Reduction in harassment by Tax Officials

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 52% citizens believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 1 year

52% citizens said they believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 1 year, while 22% said it has not reduced. 26% were not sure about it. Several reforms were introduced by the Government in the last 1 year to eliminate human interfaces with electronic interfaces such that the room for harassment is minimised. It is also expected that in the coming years, the Government will continue to introduce additional technology and data intelligence such that it can go after the tax evaders in a much more targeted manner without any harassment of the tax complaint citizens and businesses.

The Aatmanirbhar Bharat scheme, announced to provide assistance to citizens and businesses because of the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced TDS and TCS withholding rates by 25 per cent with immediate effect till March 31, 2021, to create liquidity for businesses and citizens. While the tax has not been reduced and ultimately the individual or the business will have to deposit the tax amount at the year end, it does provide some liquidity in the immediate term. Also, the due date of all income tax returns was also extended from July 31 and October 31 to November 30, 2020. Tax audits were extended to 31 Oct 2020.

Poll 7 – Handling Communalism Issues

The verdict of the Ayodhya case, which has been bitterly contested for decades due to religious sentiments, was announced by the Supreme Court in November 2019. Ahead of the verdict, there were fears of violence but the Government handled the situation very well and no communal incidents were reported. However, the Delhi communal riots negatively impacted Government’s image as the riots went on for 48 hours with Delhi Police unable to control the situation. As a result, only 56% citizens felt that the Government has been effective in handling issues related to communalism in the last 1 year. 40% citizens disagreed and 4% did not have an opinion.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 56% citizens believe the Government has been effective in handling issues related to Communalism in the last 1 year

Poll 8 – The Startup Sector

The Startup India Mission was launched to help startups in India get an inclusive environment and foster their growth. With around 20,000 registered startups (per Startup India website), India has the world’s 2nd largest startup ecosystem, which has also been a large employment generator for the country for the last decade. When asked if establishing, operating and growing a startup become easier in the last 1 year, 37% answered in a positive while 31% answered in a negative.

While the Government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, apply for patents, doing business with the Government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continues to be a challenge for startups. Most Government departments continue to be reluctant in working with startups and awarding contracts to them and most of the payments are late creating a liquidity crisis for revenue dependent startups. On the funding front, early stage investments continued to decline in 2019 due to the macro environment and have literally come to a standstill post COVID-19. There is an urgent need for the Government to step in to save the Indian startup ecosystem where per an earlier LocalCircles survey conducted in the last week of April, 71% startups have less than 3 months of cash left with them and almost no funding deals in the pipeline.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: Only 37% citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup has become easier in the last 1 year

Poll 9 – Reduction in prices of essential commodities and cost of living

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: Only 36% citizens believe prices of essential commodities and the cost of living has reduced in the last 1 year

36% citizens said they feel the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living has reduced in the last 1 year while 56% felt it had not happened. While average inflation in 2019 was 4.5%, prices of essential commodities have largely been in control. However, post the lockdown since March 22, prices of essentials paid by consumers on the ground have been higher than usual due to the lack of supply availability and in some cases overcharging by traders and retailers.

Poll 10 – Reduction in Terrorism

In the last 12 months, the Indian Army has been in a heightened state of alert and multiple intelligence agencies have been working together to foil any major terrorist attack. Post Pulwama attack in February 2019, there were no major terrorist incidents in 2019 barring a few attacks in Jammu and Kashmir in March and June 2019. Citizens were asked if they believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 1 year. 73% said yes while 23% said no.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 73% citizens believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 1 year

Poll 11 – Government’s handling of Parliament

The Parliament took some bold decisions in the last 1 year. This included the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, The Triple Talaq Bill 2019, Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 and the Consumer Protection Act 2019. In just the Winter Session of the Parliament, the productivity of Lok Sabha turned out to be around 116% and that of Rajya Sabha around 100%. PM Modi also mentioned that in the 17th Lok Sabha, the Parliamentarians broke the 60-year record and were very productive. On this key parameter, 79% citizens felt the Government has been able to effectively handle Parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 1 year. 19% felt that they weren’t able to effectively handle the parliament and deliver on key bills.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 79% citizens believe Government has effectively handled parliament and delivered on key bills in the last 1 year

Poll 12 – Delivering to Manifesto Promises

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 59% citizens believe Government is on track to deliver to the promise made in its manifesto (pre-election 2019)

The NDA manifesto included key items like abrogation of article 360 and Triple Talaq and bringing in the National Register of Citizens. All 3 of these were delivered by the Government in the last 1 year. When people were asked about Government’s delivery to manifesto, 59% people said that they feel the Government is on track to deliver on the promises made in its pre-election manifesto.

Poll 13 – Optimism about Future

Pre COVID-19, India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. An aspirational society, lifestyle in India for especially the hardworking and the educated has significantly improved in the last 2 decades. While COVID-19 has put a temporary break on things, the people of India are still largely optimistic about their future and many strongly believe that India is yet to arrive. Citizens were asked if they feel optimistic about their and family's future in India. A whopping 69% answered in a positive while 25% answered in a negative.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 65% citizens feel optimistic about their & their family’s future in India

Poll 14 – Tackling Pollution

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: Only 39% citizens believe Government has taken enough measures to improve air quality in the last 1 year

Pollution in the country has been a big talking point over the years. 10 of the cities with the worst quality in the world are in India led by none other than the National Capital Region of India. With PM 2.5 hitting 1000+ for many days in the months of October and November each year, Indian needs an urgent solution to this crisis. The solution requires ensuring an end to burning of farm stubble by making sure crop sowing cycles have timely availability of water and stubble is either decomposed naturally or picked up by a Government facilitated service. This along with modern street cleaning equipment, restricted vehicular movement, etc must be implemented. When citizens were asked about the efforts taken by the Government to reduce pollution, 53% citizens said the Government did not take enough measures to improve air quality in the last 12 months. 39% said they felt enough steps were taken.

Poll 15 – Overall Performance

In the final question, citizens were asked about overall performance of Modi Government 2.0. Overall, 25% citizens rated the 1-year performance of Modi Government 2.0 as exceeding expectations while 36% rated it as meeting their expectations. 38% said that the performance was below expectations.

1 year of Modi Government 2.0: 62% citizens believe Government has met or exceeded expectations

Comparison of Year 2019 vs Year 2020 – Citizen Assessment of Modi Government performance

LocalCircles had conducted a similar survey last year to assess that performance of the Government in 2019. If we compare the last year’s results with this year’s results, it looks like the citizen ratings for the Government have gone down in many areas.

Last year, only 39% citizens had said that the Government has not been able to address the unemployment situation. This number has jumped to 56% this year. COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns have had a drastic effect on the already struggling Indian economy resulting in business disruption and massive job losses. This has partially contributed to the downward trending ratings on addressing unemployment in the survey.

43% this year, compared to 63% last year have said that doing business in India has become easier.

When it came to India’s influence in the world, the ratings have marginally reduced from 88% last year to 79% this year, but the approval ratings continue to be high on the backdrop of American President Donald Trump’s India visit as well as India’s move of providing Hydroxychloroquine to many countries.

Effectively handling the Parliament and delivering on key bills is one area which has seen a marked improvement. 75% this year have said that the Government has done well in this space, compared to 69% last year who said the same thing.

64% citizens last year had said that corruption in the country had reduced. This percentage has reduced to 49% in this year’s survey, indicating that lesser number of people feel that corruption has reduced in the last 1 year.

The startup sector of the country has struggled in the last 12 months. This is evident from this year’s survey results where only 37% citizens, compared to 66% last year, have said that establishing, operating and growing a startup has become easier in India. COVID-19 has also had a tremendous impact on the startup ecosystem which is now staring at a blackout.

Last year, 57% citizens had said that they feel prices of essential commodities and the cost of living had reduced. This number has dramatically dropped down to 36% this year. Some of this could be attributed to the fact that during the 4 phases of the lockdown, many consumers had reported an increase in the prices of essential commodities.

Overall, the citizen approval rating of Modi Government performance in one year has dropped from 75% in 2019 to 62% in 2020. However, its noteworthy that 69% citizens are still optimistic about their and their family’s future in India.

Summary and Way Forward

In summary, the delivery to manifesto promises like abrogation of article 370, introduction of Triple Talaq law and Citizenship Amendment Act and Ayodhya resolution along with effective handling of COVID-19 pandemic has helped Government secure the ratings that it has from citizens. Areas where the citizenry is greatly concerned and has expressed dissatisfaction include employment generation, stagnant earnings, health of small businesses, economic impact without and with COVID-19, poor air quality and handling of Delhi riots.

With the COVID-19 daily cases already at 7000 a day and an urgent need to contain the spread, an unemployment rate of 27% and fast deteriorating health of Indian businesses, the Modi Government 2.0 has its work cut out for the second year - “Contain the spread of COVID-19, minimise loss of livelihood and shutdown of business and revive the economy”.